Namaste sathiharu,
Today, I want to talk about something we all have heard about – hydropower. Every year, we hear news about “Nepal becoming rich from hydropower,” or “Nepal can sell electricity to India.” You might also have seen banners that say “hydropower is Nepal’s future.”
But the big question is – is this really a boom, or is it just a bubble waiting to burst?
Let me walk you through this in simple language – like we are sitting on a tea shop and having gaff with friends. I’ll share real examples, what’s happening on the ground, and what it means for us – the common people of Nepal.
Why Everyone Talks About Hydropower in Nepal?
Let’s start from the basics.
Nepal is rich in rivers. We have big rivers like Koshi, Gandaki, and Karnali – and hundreds of small ones. Because we are a hilly country, the water flows from high hills with a lot of force. That’s perfect for making electricity through hydropower.
According to studies, Nepal has a potential of more than 83,000 MW of hydropower. Out of that, around 43,000 MW is economically feasible.
Now compare this with what we have done so far – as of 2024, we are generating around 3,200 MW only.
So, obviously, everyone gets excited and says – “Yesto potential ta ho! Aba ta Nepal bijuli bechera dhani huncha!”
Boom: What’s Good So Far?
Yes, there has been good progress too. Let’s look at the bright side first.
1. Electricity Export
In the past, we had load shedding – remember those 12-14 hours of darkness? Aaja aba, we have surplus electricity in monsoon season. Nepal has started exporting electricity to India, especially in rainy season when production is high.
In 2023, Nepal earned over 11 billion rupees just by exporting electricity to India. It’s a big achievement.
2. Big Projects are Moving
Projects like Upper Tamakoshi (456 MW), Kaligandaki Gorge, Midhill Highway-based hydros, and Budhi Gandaki (though controversial) show that investors and the government are serious.
3. Private Sector Involvement
Private companies have become active. Projects like Sanima Mai, Upper Trishuli, and Solu Khola are examples of successful private sector efforts.
4. Job Creation
Thousands of jobs are being created – from unskilled laborers to civil engineers. Even small tea shops and lodges are getting business around project areas.
So, yes – hydropower is creating a boom feeling. But wait, it’s not all shiny.
Now Let’s Talk Real – Is It a Bubble Too?
Sathiharu, aba aba kura garchau ekdam real.
1. Only Monsoon Export?
Most hydropower projects in Nepal are run-of-river type. That means they produce electricity only when there is enough water – mainly in monsoon.
In winter, production drops by up to 60%. But our demand is increasing in winter too – for heating, cooking, industries.
So, we can export electricity to India in monsoon, but in winter, we may again import! That’s not sustainable.
Example: In 2022, Nepal exported power in July-August but had to import from India in December-January.
2. Too Many Projects, Not Enough Planning
Over 350 projects are licensed by the Department of Electricity Development. Everyone wants to make hydro!
But we don't have proper transmission lines, roads, or grid capacity. Many projects are stuck because there’s no way to bring electricity to the main system.
Example: A project in Ramechhap completed on time, but had to wait one year to get transmission line. That’s millions of rupees loss.
It’s like everyone opening shops, but no road for customers to come!
3. Politics and Commission
Hydropower projects are also victims of corruption and political game.
Big contracts are given to near-and-dear ones, not to capable ones. Delay is common, and cost keeps increasing.
Example: Budhi Gandaki project has been in planning for over 20 years, but still not started. Every government changes plan – sometimes to Chinese, sometimes to Indian companies.
Common people ask – “Tyo project ta kurama matra ho? Aba ta aba aba suneko ho!”
4. Ecological and Social Impact
Let’s not forget – damming rivers, blasting rocks, and diverting water affects nature and local people.
Villages near projects face landslides, floods, and displacement. Many communities are not properly compensated.
Example: In some areas of Dolakha and Rasuwa, locals protested saying “hydro has brought more pain than power.”
We need development, but sustainable and just development.
Who is Benefiting from Hydropower Boom?
This is important.
Big contractors, politicians, and foreign investors are making profits. But common users like us – still pay high electricity bills.
Local people near dam areas often don’t even get 24-hour electricity.
Yes, some benefit from jobs or share opportunities in IPOs, but many feel left out.
The Transmission Trouble
Hydro banaune ta banau, tara bijuli lai kaha laney?
Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) is struggling to build big transmission lines on time. Projects are ready, but electricity cannot reach the national grid.
Case Study: The 220 kV line from Bharatpur to Bardaghat faced delay due to land acquisition problems. Locals said the line passed through their farms but government gave no compensation.
This is happening in multiple places – from east to west.
Is Export to India Sustainable?
Selling electricity to India sounds good. But is it reliable?
India itself is producing huge amounts of energy, including solar. They will buy only when they want.
What if India builds more renewables and stops buying? Nepal will be stuck with surplus energy and no market.
Energy experts say: “Never depend on one buyer. We must diversify.”
Also, let’s think – why can’t we use that electricity inside Nepal for industries, agriculture, transport? Why export everything?
Nepal’s Energy Ambition: Dream or Drama?
Nepal government aims to produce 15,000 MW by 2030. That sounds like a big dream.
But if we don’t fix these issues:
- No market to sell
- No internal demand growth
- Weak transmission
- Political instability
...then this could become a hydropower bubble.
A bubble looks big from outside, but it can burst anytime.
What Should Be Done?
Let’s talk solution too. Aba ke garne ta?
1. Promote Internal Use
Let’s use our electricity inside Nepal – promote:
- Electric cooktops instead of LPG
- Electric vehicles (EVs)
- Industries powered by hydro
- Cold storage for farmers using hydro
2. Plan Transmission Before Production
Don't approve new projects unless there is transmission plan. Hydro without grid is like milk without glass!
3. Support Storage Projects
Storage-type hydros can produce electricity in all seasons. Government must promote those even if initial cost is high.
4. Involve Local People
Give shares, jobs, and respect to locals. If locals are happy, projects move faster and smoother.
5. Export, but Smartly
Don’t depend only on India. Explore Bangladesh, and even use electricity to create hydrogen (future fuel).
Conclusion: Boom or Bubble? You Decide
So sathiharu, is Nepal’s hydropower journey a boom or a bubble?
The answer is – it can be both.
If we plan well, include people, build right projects, and use energy smartly – it’s a boom.
But if we rush blindly, ignore planning, and just build for the sake of building – it’s a bubble.
The dream is possible – Nepal can be a power-producing country. But dreams need hard work, honesty, and proper planning.
Let’s not just repeat “hydropower is white gold.” Let’s make it real gold for every Nepali – not just the rich and powerful.
Thank you for listening. Aba tapaiko bichar ke cha? Hydropower boom ho ki bubble? Let’s discuss.
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